贝叶斯方法在洪水保险费调整中的应用

Application of Bayesian approach to the adjustment of flood premium

在洪水保险中,获得的样本信息不符合对统计样本的理论要求。因此,本文运用贝叶斯统计方法,依据先验信息数据确定的保险费,结合新的理赔记录,调整和校正赔款频率和平均赔款额,从而正确估计保险费。使其符合实际的风险水平。并运用实例分析了贝叶斯方法的可行性,本文的方法和结论可供开展洪水保险项目研究和业务工作参考。

In the flood insurance, the sample information gotten doesn′t accord with the theory requset for the statistical sample.So the Bayesian approach is used, namely according to premium confirmed by priori information, claim frequency and expected claim size are adjusted and corrected combining the new claims settlement record.Thus premium can be estimated correctly and suits actual risk level.And an example is used to check the feasibility of Bayesian approach.The method and conclusion of the paper can afford reference for project research and business of flood insurance.