微观决策与经济体制:房地产泡沫下的居民-金融部门破产

Individual Decision and Institutional Evolution: the Bankruptcy of Households and Financial Institutions in the Real Estate Bubble

本文以两阶段动态优化模型研究了居民的房地产投资决策和泡沫的形成与爆裂,结论如下:第一,预期收入和预期价格是决定房地产投资的基本因素;第二,预期收入受体制影响,具有随机变量特征,因而房地产存在超买和超贷可能;第三,房地产泡沫累积和爆裂的过程是理性预期下预期房产价格与即期房产投资交互作用的过程;第四,预期收入与实际收入的偏离将直接导致居民部门破产和银行不良贷款上升。

This paper studies real estate investment decision and rational bubble by an overlapping generation model. Conclusions are as follows. First, expected income and price are two factors for investment. Second, expected income is a random variable which affected by institutional evolution, and hence, over demand and over loan are possible. Third, bubble path is created by interaction between investment and expected price. Finally, the gap between expect and actual income leads to households bankruptcy and nonperforming loans of banks.