摘要
应用性能、创新数量、创新级别和收益率四个尺度变量来评估技术系统的成熟度,进而作出技术预测。并以转杯纺纱机作为案例来说明应用TRIZ进行技术预测的过程。
The paper applies four main descriptors to assess the life cycle stage of a technological system to make forecasts. The four main descriptors are performance,the number of inventions per time period,the level of innovation per time period and the profitability per time period. A case study is presented to show the process of application of TRIZ to technology forecasting.
出处
《研究与发展管理》
CSSCI
2004年第5期77-81,共5页
R&D Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70271055)。
关键词
TRIZ
技术预测
演变模式
S-曲线
TRIZ
technology forecasting
patterns of evolution
S-cure
