流动性约束条件下的中国居民预防性储蓄行为分析

On the People' s Precautionary Savings Behaviors under Liquidity Constraints

预防性储蓄和流动性约束是解释转轨时期中国居民消费行为的流行理论,但目前国内学者大多采用静态估计方法,通过对小样本的时间序列数据进行普通最小。乘法回归来检验流动性约束和预防性储蓄假说,并且没有区分长期消费与短期消费之间的关系。 本文运用动态建模方法,运用改革以来24年的时间序列数据对中国居民消费问题进行了计量检验,证明了转轨时期中国居民消费的预防性储蓄和流动性约束特征,并提出了相应的政策建议。

Precautionary savings and Liquidity constraints theories are prevailing to explain the features of Chinese people consumption behavior in transitional period. But many economists use static OLS regression method to test Precautionary savings and Liquidity constraints hypo these and some of them mixed long-run and short-run. This paper tries to use dynamic econometric method and panal data to test people' s consumption feature of precautionary and liquidity constraints in transitional period, and then give some policy implications.