马颊河上游南乐站径流变化分析

Analysis of the Runoff Change at the Nanle Gauging Station on the Upstream of the Majiahe River

实测径流是自然与人类活动双重作用的结果。通过对1956～2000年马颊河上游南乐水文站的实测水文资料、流域降水资料以及通过控制断面以上流域的用水和引水资料进行还原的径流序列的分析,揭示了天然径流的变化敏感地反映了气候的变化,人类活动已远远超过气候变化对径流的影响。通过分析2个时段降雨径流关系,揭示了近20年来与1956～1979年相比,同样降水量条件下径流量的增大,反映了产汇流条件的明显变化。

The observed river runoff is resulted from the nature and human activities. In order to analyze the natural runoff on the upstream of the Majiahe River during the period of 1956-2000, the observed data about the water consumption and diversion on the controlled catchment of the Nanle Gauging Station are calibrated. Analysis of the precipitation, observed discharge and calibrated discharge shows that natural changes of discharge is sensitive to the climate changes, and human activities have became more important factors than physical factors in affecting the discharge change. The rainfall-runoff relationship in two different durations indicate that the runoffs in the recent 20 years are larger than that during the period of 1956-1979, which reflects an obvious change of the runoff-yield and flow concentration mechanism.