摘要
利用基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法,分析了川滇地区未来几年的地震趋势,并探讨了该方法的预测效能。研究表明:2006年底前四川及邻区发生7级地震的概率较小,云南发生7级地震的概率较大,优势时间为2005年;川滇菱形块体西部发生6 5级以上地震的可能性比东部大。
The earthquake tendency in the future years in Sichuan and Yunnan area is analyzed by the linear probability method on the base of earthquake periodical spectrum analysis,and the forecast effect is also discussed in the paper.The resuts show that the probability of earthquakes with M s≥7.0 is smaller in Sichuan and its neighboring area before 2006,but bigger in Yunnan province,probably in 2005,and bigger in western than in eastern of Sichuan and Yunnan rhombic block(with M s≥6.5).
出处
《高原地震》
2004年第3期16-22,共7页
Plateau Earthquake Research
基金
"十五"国家科技攻关项目(100501-05-07)。
关键词
周期谱
线性合成概率
地震预测
Periodical spectrum
Linear probability
Earthquake forecast
