摘要
电力是关系到中国国民经济和环境的重要行业。电力部门经历了从电力明显过剩而建设不足,到电力出现严重短缺又建设迅猛的过程。这种大起大落不利于中国经济和环境的健康发展。仿真研究显示如果电力装机及输配容量每年稳定增长30～38 GW即可降低这种大起大落的风险。但是,不管具体数据如何,国际上的经验表明要减少这种短缺和过剩发生的可能性和严重性需要新的政策以指导规划、投资、以及市场和管理改革。
China's electric power sector is a vital part of the nation's economic and environmental well being. The power sector has been plagued with persistent swings from significant power surpluses to serious power shortages. This Boom/Bust cycle is not good for China's economic or environment health. One simulation showed that steady annual additions of no less than 30 GW, and no more than 38 GW, of new resources (demand reductions or supply increases) would reduce the risk of a Boom/Bust cycle. But regardless of specific numerical results, international experience shows that new planning, investment, and market and regulatory reform policies are needed to reduce the likelihood and severity of future shortages and surpluses.
