货币政策的汇率效应及人民币汇率定价研究

A Research on the Effect of Monetary Policy upon ExchangeRate and Pricing of RMB Exchange

本文将汇率定价问题纳入开放经济的宏观经济框架进行了一般均衡研究,提出并构建了两国货币政策的粘性均衡汇率效应模型,并开发建立了它的人民币兑美元模型。对1992至2000年的人民币粘性均衡汇率进行了定价,并对2001年的定价进行了预测。对1992至2001年的人民币汇率偏离与经常性项目的关系,进行了弹性分析,结果表明模型的定价及其预测是合理和有效的。

In the discussion unfolded in this paper, exchange rate pricing is considered in the light of the framework of open macro economy; and the discussion also involves the general equilibrium research.This paper puts forward its perception of the Sticky Equilibrium Exchange Rate Effect Model(SEEREM) by using Open Economy as the macroeconomic framework, profit maximization of manufacturers as microeconomic foundation, strict mathematical deduction as logic link, Dornbusch's sticky price as ideological guideline, differential impact form of Purchasing Power Parity as theoretical foundation, and comprehensively applying the models and methods such as optimization method, time series single equation, etc.This paper sets an imaginary price for the exchange rates for conversion from RMB to US dollars from 1992 to 2000 and predicts the pricing of 2001 by using the SEEREM for the conversion from RMB to US dollars.Using it as a standard, this paper conducts elasticity analysis on the relation of market exchange rate deviation and current items from 1992 to 2001.