名义锚的选择分析

An Analysis of the Choice of Nominal Anchor

汇率锚、货币供应量目标以及通货膨胀目标作为可供选择的名义锚均有其自身的优势和劣势。锚币国的任何变化都会通过汇率渠道传递到本国,这使得维持汇率锚的成本大大增加;同时,由于货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的相关性被破坏,货币供应量目标也不再适合我国;因而,通货膨胀定标制将成为我国可能的选择。

The vertical Phillips curve and the time-inconsistency problem make it necessary for the central bank to employ nominal anchors to solve the issues just specified.The discussion unfolded in this paper touches upon three nominal anchors: exchange rate anchor, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting.Any one of the three has its own advantages and disadvantages. Any shock taking place in an anchor country can affect its economy.This implies that exchange rate pegging is unlikely to be a viable option for China.On the other hand, monetary targeting is not even an alternative for China because of the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates and inflation.Thus, a makeshift way is to switch to an inflation targeting regime with its transparency and accountability.