中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件

VARIATION OF DRY-WET CLIMATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT EVENTS AS REVEALED IN THE CLIMATE RECORDS OF CHINA OVER THE PAST 1 000 YEARS

对中国历史气候记录的研究表明:准周期性是过去1000年间中国东部各区域的干湿气候变化的基本特征;各区域间主要周期变化的位相差异,表现为降水的空间分布格局(如南涝北旱、北涝南旱等分布型)随时间的变化;1000年来干湿气候发生过多次十年和百年尺度的突变,降水的突变对农业生产会有明显影响。过去1000年间多次出现过大范围的持续时间3年以上的严重干旱事件,其严重程度多为最近50年所未见,因此,在过去1000年的气候变化历程中,最近的50年尚属于气候条件较好的时段,但对未来出现气候突变和重大气候灾异的可能性应予以警惕。

Based on the historical climate records of China, the study reveals that quasi periodicity is the basic feature of regional dry-wet climate happening in the eastern part over the past 1000 years; difference in the phase of major periods on dry-wet between the north and south of eastern China is displayed in the time-dependent pattern of rainfall, i.e., a drought in the north and a flood in the south and v.v.; multiple abrupt appearances of dry and wet climate on decadal and century scales occurred in the last 1000 years, exerting great impacts on agriculture; discovered large-scale severe droughts each lasted > 3 years, analysis shows that many of the drought events were more severe than what has been recorded in the recent 50 years, a time interval that is more acceptable compared to other periods in the past 1000 years. Obviously, we should be alert to future climate abrupt change and major disastrous situation.