盈亏平衡分析在矿产勘查投资风险分析中的应用

The Application of Break—even Analyzis to Analyze the Investment Risk in Minerals Exploration

估计矿石储量的概率分布近于正态分布,在资料不充分的情况下,可以用三角形分布来代替。本文企图将盈亏平衡分析和估计矿石储量的概率分布结合使用,使勘查投资风险定量化。根据盈亏平衡分析计算盈亏平衡时所需的储量。由估计矿石储量的概率分布,求出其亏损的概率 P{Q<Q_0},盈利的概率 P{Q<Q_0}以及储量临界百分数;并在此基础上进行敏感性分析.

The probability distribution estimated ore reserves approximates to a normal distribution.Without sufficient data,triangular distribution is used instead of normal dis. tribution.This paper attempts to quantify the investment risk in minerals exploration through combination break—even analysis with the probability distribution of estimated orereserves,The probability of its loss,the probability of its profit and the percentage of break—even piont can be calculated by means of the reserves of break—even point and the probability distribution of estimated ore reserves,on which we can cany out a sensitiv- ity analysis.