摘要
Fundamental changes seem unlikely in the major factors driving global economic growth, yet with a somewhat weakened momentum. A slowdown in world growth is in sight, but the slide will gradually become less severe. A cyclical bust has visited upon U.S. economy, while steadiness has returned to the European economy. Sluggishness, however, still plagues the Japanese economy. Nevertheless, the emerging Asian markets have shaken off the economic crisis, but the issue of deepening restructuring remains to be tackled. Lack of staying power characterizes growth in the transition economies in Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe. The room for upturn in the global stock exchanges, yet a hopeful correction looks possible for remedying their severe divergence from basic economic realities. The strong U.S. dollar appears to be hardly sustainable, while the weak Eurodollar will somewhat pick up strength. Investments into the IT technology will slow down with the industry facing a periodic readjustment. Even so, the IT technology will still remain the long-term driving force behind global economic expansion. Though information revolution has offered developing nations opportunities for a leaf-frog development, unfortunately it has widened the digital gap across the world. Growth in the global trade has dwindled with resistance to multi-lateral trade liberalization remaining unabated. However, bilateral talks and sub-regional agreements will continue to push forward trade globalization. The demand and supply tension in the international oil markets will hopefully be reduced with wild price swings back onto the normal course. That will be good news to the global economy to be freed from a deadly blow.
Fundamental changes seem unlikely in the major factors driving global economic growth, yet with a somewhat weakened momentum. A slowdown in world growth is in sight, but the slide will gradually become less severe. A cyclical bust has visited upon U.S. economy, while steadiness has returned to the European economy. Sluggishness, however, still plagues the Japanese economy. Nevertheless, the emerging Asian markets have shaken off the economic crisis, but the issue of deepening restructuring remains to be tackled. Lack of staying power characterizes growth in the transition economies in Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe. The room for upturn in the global stock exchanges, yet a hopeful correction looks possible for remedying their severe divergence from basic economic realities. The strong U.S. dollar appears to be hardly sustainable, while the weak Eurodollar will somewhat pick up strength. Investments into the IT technology will slow down with the industry facing a periodic readjustment. Even so, the IT technology will still remain the long-term driving force behind global economic expansion. Though information revolution has offered developing nations opportunities for a leaf-frog development, unfortunately it has widened the digital gap across the world. Growth in the global trade has dwindled with resistance to multi-lateral trade liberalization remaining unabated. However, bilateral talks and sub-regional agreements will continue to push forward trade globalization. The demand and supply tension in the international oil markets will hopefully be reduced with wild price swings back onto the normal course. That will be good news to the global economy to be freed from a deadly blow.
出处
《现代国际关系》
CSSCI
北大核心
2001年第2期15-19,共5页
