山东省蚕茧产量增长要素贡献率分析

Analysis on the Contribution Rate of Key Elements of Cocoon Production Increases in Shandong Province

对 1970 - 2 0 0 0年山东省历年蚕茧产量、张种产茧量、桑园面积和单位面积桑园可饲养蚕种数量的变化趋势进行了分析 ,并运用因子分解法定量地测定了各要素对蚕茧产量增长的贡献率。结果表明 :促使蚕茧产量增长的最主要因素是单位面积桑园可饲养蚕种数量 ,其贡献率在 4 0 %以上 ;其次是桑园面积 ,贡献率在 15 %～ 5 5 %之间 ;而张种产茧量的贡献率最小 ,大多数年份在 2 0 %以下。

The variation tendency of cocoon output,cocoon crop per case eggs,mulberry field area and cases of eggs raised per unit of mulberry field were analysed from 1970 to 2000.The contribution rates of cocoon output increase of the key elements were quantitatively measured by using factor determine method.The results showed that the main factor that impel the cocoon output increases is the cases of eggs raised per hectare mulberry field whose contribution rate is more than 40%,next is the area of mulberry field whose contribution rate in most years is between 15%～55%.The contribution rate of cocoon crop of per case of eggs is the lest and under 20% in the most years.