机动车交通安全统计分布函数及预测模型研究

Distribution function and forecast models of motor vehicle in traffic safety

论文通过对交通安全统计数据的分析 ,提出了机动车类型相关事故分布函数 ,建立了机动车保有量及机动车类型事故分布函数预测模型 .依据分布函数对中、美两国一定时间段的交通安全进行了分析 ,并对机动车保有量、分布函数趋势、交通事故进行了预测 ,其结果准确、有效 .

Through analyzing statistics data of traffic safety, the paper puts forward the distribution function of motor accident and establishes forecast models on vehicle holding and distribution function of motor vehicles accident, and acquires good forecasting results for China and America at a given period of time. According to the forecast models, scientific measures and policies on traffic safety will be worked out.