摘要
提出了厄尔尼诺事件成因链的概念.指出影响厄尔尼诺事件的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的厄尔尼诺事件成因链.成因链上物理因子之间的反馈作用和消长作用,导致成因链上的各种成因理论都不能完全地自圆其说,因而也无法完全确定地用于厄尔尼诺事件预测.只有深入探讨反馈作用和消长作用,并综合分析物理因子的贡献率,才能提高厄尔尼诺事件预测的准确率.这为解决厄尔尼诺事件的成因问题提供了一种新的思路.
The concept of cause chain of the El Nino events was put forward. It was pointed out that the physical factor of the influence on the El Nino events was linked ring upon ring. They made up one cause chain that connected and had the relation of the cause and effects mutually. The theory of various causes along the cause chain didn't justify itself and could not be used to forecast the El Nino events completely because of the feedback and decrease-increase effect between the physical factors along the cause chain. Only the feedback and decrease-increase effect and the contributive ratio of the physical factors had deeply been analyzed, could the accurate ratio of forecast of the El Nino events be improved. A new thread of thought is provided for solving the cause problem of the El Nino event.
出处
《地球物理学进展》
CSCD
2004年第3期721-724,共4页
Progress in Geophysics
基金
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(402034)
浙江省金华市科技计划项目(03 1 508)资助.
关键词
厄尔尼诺事件
物理因子
成因链
反馈作用
消长作用
贡献率
El Nino events, physical factor, cause chain, feedback effect, decrease-increase effect, contributive ratio
