安徽三分区小震活动水平的统计预测

Statistical forecast of small earthquake activities inthe three regions of Anhui Province

利用马尔可夫(Markoff)模型对安徽的霍山区、淮河中游区和沿江江南区的小震活动水平进行统计预测,结果显示,一年之内霍山地区一般会发生MS≥2 5级地震,发生MS≥3 0级地震的可能性不大。淮河中游区和沿江江南区一般会发生MS≥2 0级地震,有可能发生MS≥2 5级地震。淮河中游区发生MS≥3 0级地震可能性不大,沿江江南区发生MS≥3 0级地震可能性则很小。

Based on the Markoff model, the small earthquake activities in the three regions of Anhui Province (Huoshan region,the middle region of Huaihe River,the southern region of Yangtze River) are predicted statistically.The results are as follows:within one year,in Huoshan region the probability M_S≥2.5 is between 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability M_S≥3.0 is between 0.3 and 0.5;in the middle region of Huaihe River and the southern region of Yangtze River, the probability M_S≥2.0 is 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability M_S≥2.5 is 0.5 and 0.8;the one M_S≥3.0 is 0.3 and 0.5 in the middle region of Huaihe River,but in the southern region of Yangtze River is lower than 0.3.