地震构造的能量积累和释放特征与新疆天山部分地区地震危险性分析

Preliminary Study on Accumulating and Releasing Characteristics of Seismic Tectonic Energy and Seismic Risk of Some Seismogenic Tectonics in Tianshan

通过对活动断裂定量资料和地震活动性的分析对比 ,认为完整地震轮回包括特征地震和特征地震之间的次级地震 ;次级地震的震级与上次特征地震的离逝时间、断裂滑动速率有关 ;断裂的位移分为产生特征地震的大粘滑和产生次级地震的小粘滑 ;完整地震轮回中震级 -频度关系依然成立 ;完整地震轮回的能量积累大致分为 4个阶段 ,各阶段的地震活动性不同 ;特征地震的最大位移与平均位移之间的关系也反映了特征地震与次级地震之间的变形分配。基于上述认识 ,建立了相应的数学关系 ,用于定量估计地震构造的潜在震级和危险性 ;

Based on the comparative analysis on the quantitative data of active faults, it is supposed that a completive recurrence period should include characteristic earthquakes and sub-strong earthquakes. The magnitudes of the sub-strong earthquakes for the characteristic earthquakes are correlative with the slipping rates of the faults and the elapsed time from the lastest characteristic earthquake. The offsets of the seismogenic faults are composed of big stick-slips and small stick-slips. The big stick-slips are formed by characteristics and the small stick-slips are formed by sub-strong earthquakes. The relationship between the frequency and magnitude is still existing through a completive recurrence period. The completive recurrence period can be divided into four energy accumulating stages. Each stage experiences different seismicity. The differentia between the maximum and average offsets indicates the partitioning of the displacement between the characteristic and sub-strong earthquakes. According to the above understudy of accumulating and releasing characteristics of seismic tectonic energy, we established the correspond equations and estimated quantitatively the magnitudes of the potential earthquake of some seismogenic tectonics in Tianshan.