利用马尔可夫模型预测福州市植被动态变化

Dynamic Change Prediction of Vegetation in Fuzhou City by Markov's Models

利用遥感信息手段提取了1988年,2000年福州市典型样区内植被类型变化状况,并验证了植被类型的变化具有马尔可夫特性。利用马尔可夫预测模型预测了福州市未来50a内的植被类型动态变化。研究结果表明,茂密林、针阔混交林和灌木林的面积比例将有一定幅度的增加,而经济林、禾本科农作物和裸地面积将有一定比例的减少。由此可见福州市经过若干年的生态建设,植被生物量从整体上来看,呈现增加趋势,生态环境状况趋于良好。

According to the remote sensing image information of 1998 and 2000 in Fujian Province, the changing state of vegetation species in typical districts of Fuzhou City was drawn, and it was proved that the changing of vegetation species accordes with Markov's course. The dynamic change of vegetation species of Fuzhou City in the following 50 years was predicted by Markov's model. The result indicated that the area proportion of dense woods, mixed needle leaf and broad leaf forest and bush of woods had certain increase, and the area proportion on the economic forest, grass family crops and naked land will have certain reduction. Therefore after the ecological construction for several years, the vegetation productivity of Fuzhou City from the whole aspect, will present the increasing trend and ecological environment towards good condition.