滑坡预警判据初步研究——以三峡库区为例

A primary study on landslide warning criterionAn example from the reservoir region of the Three Gorges

在三峡库区典型地段滑坡灾害调查评价和统计分析的基础上,结合典型滑坡变形发展的阶段性变形现象、标志和临界诱发因素分析,初步提出3个层次的滑坡预警预报判据27条,包括:(1)滑坡空间预测识别判据11条,主要用于滑坡或潜在危岩体空间识别和危险性区划,是滑坡空间预测的基本判据;(2)滑坡状态判据7条,主要用于滑坡单体稳定性评价的亚临界-临界状态预警判据,是滑坡状态预警判据系统的重要组成部分;(3)滑坡临界时间预报判据9条,主要用于单体滑坡剧烈变形或临滑预报,是滑坡时间预报研究的关键判据。

On the basis of investigation and statistic analysis of the landslide hazards in the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River, the critical phenomenon and triggering conditions of different deformation phases are analyzed in the representative landslides, and twenty seven criterion landslide warnings of 3 hierarchies are proposed. These criteria include: (1)eleven criterions of landslides event that are distinguished from the area, which could be used as criterions of landslide hazard zoning or geological determination of areas prone to landslides; (2)seven warning criterions of landslides state could be mainly used as sub-critical-critical criterions of stability assessment for specific landslide; (3)nine critical time forecasting criterions of landslides occurrence, being the key criterions of landslide warning-forecasting systems, could be mainly used as critical criterions of specific landslide occurrence.