摘要
通过对温州1978年-2003年GDP增长的分析,用ARIMA模型进行拟合,在此基础上预测2008年前温州经济的发展趋势。未来5年,温州GDP将以15%左右的增长速度飞速发展,将于2007年突破2000亿大关。温州的蓬勃发展得益于其强大的民营经济。
In this paper we use ARIMA model to simulate the history date of GDP by analyzing the GDP of Wenzhou from 1978 to 2003. Furthermore, we forecast the trend of Wenzhou economy before 2008. We found that the GDP of Wenzhou will increase rapidly with 15 percent per year, and then it will reach 200 billion in 2007. In the end, we point out that the impetus of rapid increasing is the strong private economy.
