中国1959—1961年农业危机的主因:对林毅夫假说的定量检验

Main Reasons for Chinese Agricultural Crisis in 1959—1961:The Quantitative Test on Linyifu′s Hypothesis

林毅夫认为,关于中国1959—1961年农业危机主因的传统解释与经验事实不符,而应该以博弈论的观点解释这次危机,并归因于"一次性博弈"。笔者对这一假说予以严格的定量检验。结果表明,特定的农作政策是这一阶段农业危机的主因,同时自然灾害也是不容忽视的影响因素。

Lin Yifu believed that the traditional explanation for the agricultural crisis between 1959 to 1961 was inconsistent with the empirical evidence.He further explained the catastroph by applying Game Theory based on 'one-shot game'.This paper tests the hypothesis by a quantitative test.The results shows that the specified farming policy mainly resulted in the low productivity,and the natural disaster itself should not be ignored as a main factor.