重庆市不同区域建设用地变化及社会驱动力研究——以北碚区、万州区、酉阳县为例

STUDY ON CONSTRUCTION LAND USE CHANGES AND THE SOCIAL DRIVING FORCES FOR THEM IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS OF CHONGQING——A CASE STUDY OF BEIBEI, WANZHOU AND YOUYANG

运用多元线性回归法对北碚区、万州区、酉阳县 1990 -2 0 0 0年建设用地变化和社会经济资料进行统计分析 ,运用灰色预测法得出建设用地变化趋势 ,研究结果表明 :( 1)在 1990 -2 0 0 0年期间 ,北碚区建设用地的动态度最大 ,3个区县的建设用地、建设用地比重以及人均建设用地都有所增加 ;( 2 )北碚区、万州区、酉阳县建设用地变化的主导因素分别是经济非农化率、城市化水平、人口密度 ;( 3 ) 3个区县的建设用地在后 10年间将会继续增加 ,北碚区建设用地将稳定增长 ,万州区增长速度明显加快 。

The multiple linear regression method was used to statistically analyze the data of the changes in construction land use and social development in Beibei District, Wanzhoiu District and Youyang County in 1990 to 2000 and the gray prediction method was adopted to study the trend in construction land use in the next 10 years. The quantity and proportion of construction land and per-capita construction land increased in all the three districts in the past ten years, with Beibei having the highest dynamic degree. The dominant factor influencing the change in construction land use was the ratio of non-agricultural economy for Beibei, urbanization for Wanzhou and population density for Youyang. The construction land use will continue to increase in the next 10 years in all the three districts and the extent of increase of Wanzhou will be greater than that in Beibei and Youyang.