两种数字图书馆发展趋势预测模型的比较

Comparison of the Trend Prediction Model between Two Kinds of Digital Libraries

本文运用灰色系统中的 GM(1,1)预测模型与逻辑斯谛曲线 (L ogistic Curve)预测模型 ,对近年来数字图书馆研究文献量的统计数据进行拟合预测 ,并结合实例对两种预测模型的预测结果进行对比分析 。

This text uses the GM(1,1)predicted model of grey systems and the logistic curve predict models,fits and predicts to the statistics that the digital library studies document quantity in recent years,and combines the prediction result to two kinds of prediction models of the instance to compare with analysing.The logistic curve is suitable for the prediction model that the digital library studied carefully to determine.