太湖流域旱涝与南海海温异常遥相关的历史见证

HISTORICAL EVIDENCE OF THE CORRELATION BETWEEN DROUGHT/FLOOD IN TAIHU LAKE BASIN AND SEA TEMPERATURE ABNORMALITY IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

我国南海海温异常对长江中下游夏季旱涝的遥相关,已被许多实测资料研究所证实。太湖流域作为长江中下游的一部分,历史时期是否也存在相应的遥相关,通过大量历史资料分析,得出了肯定的回答。在此基础上,联系历史时期和实测资料时期的其它旱涝因素分析,建立了太湖流域旱涝变化模型。

The correlation between the summer drought/flood in the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and the sea temperature abnormality has been verified by many on-thespot investigations and observed data. Since Taihu Lake basin is a part of the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, it is questioned whether this kind of correlation existed in historical period. After the analysis of large amount of historical materials, the answer is positive. Finally, combining the historical materials with observed data in flood/drought factor analysis, the model of flood/drought variation in Taihu Lake basin is established.