中国自然灾害保险风险度综合评判与区划

The Comprehensive Assessment and Regionalization of Natural Disaster Insurance Risk in China

首先将自然灾害保险风险评判分为灾害危险性与灾害易损性评判,以省、市、自治区划分自然灾害保险风险区,选择地质、地震、洪水、台风等四种自然灾害进行了自然灾害综合危险性评判;再将自然灾害易损性评判分为两个层次,第一层次是经济易损性与社会易损性评判,以风险区国内生产总值和固定资产投资作为评判指标进行了自然灾害经济易损性评判,以风险区人口密度作为指标进行了社会易损性评判,在此基础上进行了第二层次———自然灾害易损性评判;然后以自然灾害综合危险度和易损度指标值作为评判因子进行了自然灾害保险风险度综合评判;最后根据评判结果得到了各风险区的自然灾害保险风险度,由此绘制了中国自然灾害保险风险区划图。

Firstly, natural disaster insurance risk is divided into disaster danger disposition and disaster loss disposition assessment. Natural disaster insurance risk regions are partitioned by provinces, cities and self-governing areas. Geologic disaster, earthquake, flood, typhoon are chosen to be the models for the comprehensive danger disposition assessment. Natural disaster's loss disposition assessment has two levels, the first is economic loss disposition and social loss disposition assessment, the former is judged by the risk region's GDP and capital assert investment, and the latter is depended on the people's density of the risk region; the second level is natural disaster loss disposition assessment which bases on the first one. Then natural disaster insurance risk degree is comprehensively assessed by the natural disaster's comprehensive danger degree and loss degree. At last, every region's natural disaster insurance risk degree can be concluded from the assessed result and then the regionalization map of China is drawn.