引入地质风险的经济评价新指标——风险收益率

RATE OF RISKED RETURN──A NEW INDEXINTRODUCING GEOLOGICAL RISK FOR ECO NOMIC EVALUATION

传统的油气勘探项目经济评价方法基本都是单一的分析 :或表征勘探项目所取得的投资收益 ,或衡量项目所承担的地质风险。为统一评价勘探项目的经济可行性和地质风险性 ,探索性地提出了一种新的经济评价指标———风险收益率 ,把地质指标 (勘探成功概率 )与经济指标 (净现金流量 )进行有效结合 ,作为勘探项目投资决策的准绳和依据。在介绍风险收益率概念和公式的基础上 ,指出了风险收益率和内部收益率的区别与联系 ,并以J油田的实际资料为例 ,演示了风险收益率的计算推导过程。分析了风险收益率的应用范围和特点 :可一步比选勘探项目方案并作出决策 ,可以推测风险金 (勘探投资 )的边界值等。从而得出结论 :引入勘探成功概率的风险收益率指标完全可以有效地应用于勘探项目的经济评价中 ;最后指出风险收益率在应用中的注意事项。

The traditional economic evaluation of oil/gas exploration projects is a single analysis essentially: either by characterizing the investment return gained from the exploration projects, or by weighting the geologic risk borne by the projects. In order to evaluate the economic feasibility and the geologic risk of the exploration projects simultaneously, a new economic evaluation index(the rate of risked return) is proposed, which combines the geologic index (exploration success ratio) with the economic index( net present value) effectively. It can be regarded as the criterion and ground of investment decision for exploration projects. Based on the introduction of the concept and formula for the rate of risked return, the difference and connection between the rate of risked return and the internal rate of return is described. Taking the real data of J oil field as example, it is demonstrated how to calculate and derive the rate of risked return. And the applicable range and features of the rate of risked return are analyzed. With the rate of risked return, selection and decision of exploration projects can be made in one step. The boundary value of risk investment (exploration investment) can be estimated. So, the conclusion is the index of the rate of risked return introducing the exploration success ratio can be effectively used for economic evaluation of exploration projects. At the end, the key points are explained for application of the rate of risked return.