大连市耕地变化及人文驱动因子的定量研究

A Quantitative Study on Trend and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Use Change in Dalian

大连市工业化、城市化发展迅速,非农建设用地占用量大,经济发展与耕地保护矛盾突出,这是我国东部沿海城市存在的普遍问题.运用数理统计方法对大连市近20年的耕地数量变化规律与人文驱动要素关系进行了定量分析.结果表明,耕地数量总体呈不断减少趋势,经济和社会因素、农业投入因素是影响耕地变化的两个主要方面,其中主要是经济和社会因素.在此基础上,建立了耕地变化与人文驱动因子之间的多元线性回归方程.

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in recent years, the cultivated land has decreased sharply in Dalian. This paper analyzed the law of quantity change of arable land and its human driving factors during the past twenty years by using mathematical statistics. The result indicated that the total area of arable land and per capita availability were reducing on the whole. As a result of the principal component analysis, the eight driving factors affecting arable land change were classified into two types, the economic and social factors, and the agricultural investment factors. Also the regressive model of the human dimensions on the arable land use change was set up.