宝山区细菌性痢疾的发病预测

Prediction about incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baoshan district

[目的 ] 预测宝山区细菌性痢疾 (下称菌痢 )的发病率。 [方法 ] 根据宝山区历年菌痢发病情况 ,运用SAS统计软件进行抛物线及指数曲线拟合 ,找出拟合度最佳的曲线模型并建立菌痢的曲线回归方程。 [结果 ] 预测2 0 0 0年宝山区菌痢发病率在 15 .2 8/ 10万～ 19.78/ 10万之间。 [结论 ] 运用SAS统计软件可以方便地进行多种方式的曲线配合 ,选择最佳预测模型预测多种疾病的发病率 。

Objective] To predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baoshan district. [Methods] Based on the incidence of bacillary dysentery some years ago, parabola and exponential curve were drawn up by using SAS software. The best curvilinear model was formed and the curve regression equation of the bacillary dysentery was built. [Results] The incidence of bacillary dysentery in year 2000 was predicted to be within 15.28/100,000～19.78/100,000. [Conclusion] It is an expediently way to create curvilinear models by using SAS software and choose the best curvilinear model to predict the incidence accurately.