用灰色预测方法预测嘉定区恶性肿瘤的变化趋势

Prediction of trend of malignant tumor in JiaDing district by Grey model

目的对嘉定区１９８５～１９９６年恶性肿瘤总死亡率；胃癌、肺癌、肝癌等主要癌种的死亡率变动趋势进行预测。方法试用ＧＭ（１，１）模型。结果恶性肿瘤总死亡率；肺癌和胃癌死亡率拟合较好，预测结果良好。结论本区恶性肿瘤尤其是肺癌的死亡率在今后一段时间将持续上升，应加强防制研究。

Objectives To predict the trend of the total mortality of malignant tumor,and specific mortality of stomach cancer,lung cancer,liver cancer and other major cancers in JiaDing district. Methods Using Grey model 1,1 to predict. Results The results by using the model fits well with the total mortality of malignant tumor,lung cancer and stomach cancer. Conclusions Mortality of malignant tumor especially lung cancer will be continuously increasing for a certain period in JiaDing district.Research on preventive measures should be strengthened.