应用时间序列分析法预测急诊抢救人次的初步研究

A Preliminary Study on Predicting the Emergency Treatment Person-time by the Analysis of TimeSeries

本文应用时间序列分析方法对河北医学院附属第四医院1981～1989年急诊抢救人次的月变化规律进行了研究,配合了趋势季节模型,并作了回顾性和前瞻性两方面的验证.结果表明,模型拟合较好、观察值基本上都落在95%预测区间之内,从而说明了趋势季节模型在预测急诊抢救人次上的可行性.

The time-series analysis method is used in this article to analyse the monthly changing regularity of emergency treatments from 1981 to 1989 in the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical College. A tendency seasonal model was established and tested in retrospective and prospectiveaspects. The result showed the fitting was good and the observation values were basically locatedwithin 95% of the prediction value range. The tendency seasonal model was thus proved feasiblein predicting the person-time at emergency treatments.