北京市水资源承载力的现状及驱动力分析

A Study on Trend and Driving Forces of Carrying Capacity Change for Water Resources in Beijing

本文阐述了水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素 ,根据北京市各县区的统计资料 ,分析了北京市自上个世纪80年代以来水资源承载力变化的总体趋势和驱动因子 .结果表明 :人口和GDP是影响北京市水资源承载力变化的主要驱动因素 .2 0 0 1年北京市人口总量已达 1 36 7 78万人 ,为水资源最大承载人口的 5 81倍 .再加上工农业的发展 ,已经大大超过了北京市水资源的承载力 ,使得北京成为世界上严重缺水的大城市之一 .根据人口的GDP增长率 ,通过多元线性回归模型 ,预测出了 2 0 1 0年和 2 0 1 5年北京市水资源的供需状况 .并提出要实现水资源的供需平衡 。

Firstly, the characteristics and influence factor of water resources bearing capacity are analyzed in this paper. Then, according to the statistical data of city and county in Beijing area, the trend of water resources carrying capacity and its driving forces in Beijing during the last 22 years are discussed. The results showed that population, GDP and society total production valual are main driving forces, which play an important role in the changing of water resources bearing capacity. By using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development,the prediction of water resources in Beijing is done for 2010 and 20l5.The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific basis for sustainable development of water resources in Beijing.