华南及台湾地区地震活动度异常的研究

ON THE ANOMALY OF SEISMICITY RATE IN SOUTH CHINA AND Taiwan Region

应用谷继成引入的地震活动度S的概念及其计算公式,研究了18次台湾强震、11次华南地区中强震的震前S值随时间的变化。结果表明,震前S值出现低值异常的震例占86％。此外,还对华南及台湾地区六个区域的S值综合预报效能R值进行了计算,事实证明,在本区S值具有一定的预报能力.

Using the concept ang the calculation formula of seismicity S introduced by Gu Jicheng, this paper studies the variations of S-value with time before 18 strong earthquakes in Taiwan Region and 11 moderate-strong earthquakes in South China region. The result shows that low S-value anomaly before the earthquakes is 86%. Moreover, the efficiency of comprehensive prediction, R-value in six zones is also calculated. The result shows that S -value can be used in earthquake prediction.