新疆经济增长与产业结构变动关系研究

The empirical analysis of Xinjiang's economic growth and industrial structure

协整检验表明新疆经济增长和产业结构变动之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,经济总量与第二、三产业产值结构同向变动,而与第一产业产值结构呈反向变动;同时,由方差分解可知,第一产业产值比重增长对第二产业产值比重增长影响较大,但反之第二产业产值比重变化对第一产业产值比重变化影响甚微。

This paper uses the dynamic econometric techniques of co-integration test and error correction model (ECM), and variance decomposition to do the empirical analysis about the relationship of the economic growth and the change of industrial structure in Xinjiang province. The result of analysis suggests that the change of industrial structure influences the economic growth apparently, and there is a long-term stable cooperative relationship between them. Besides that, the ECM gives the influence of long-term equilibrium on the short-term fluctuation. So, restructuring the industry and changing the pattern of economic growth must lay emphasis on macroeconomic policies adjustment in Xinjiang province.