我国流转税与所得税最优比例关系的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Optimal Proportion of Turnover Tax and Income Tax Rates in China

在中国 ,流转税和所得税都与经济增长呈现统计上显著的负相关 ,而与人均GDP以及城乡居民储蓄表现为较好的正相关 ;流转税和所得税分别和国内生产总值建立的三次多项式的回归模型很好地拟合了流转税和所得税的变化轨迹。本文通过 1 992～ 2 0 0 2年税收数据拟合模型 ,分别得到我国经济增长最大化时 ,最优的流转税、所得税占GDP的比率 ,并得出目前的税改重点应为增大所得税的比率的结论。

The turnover tax and income tax have a negative correlation with the economic growth in China, a positive correlation with GDP and inhabitant saving. The cubic regression model constructed with GDP fits the changing track of turnover tax and income tax. This paper pointes out the optimal proportion of turnover tax and income tax rate in the GDP with maximum economic growth, and as a result the tax reform should increase the income tax rate.