摘要
文章从城市发展的基本理论出发,利用计量经济学模型,分析了中国20世纪90年代城市人口增长的决定因素。实证分析的结果表明:(1)中国城市的发展具有趋同性,即城市规模越大,人口增长率越低;(2)迁移的惯性对城市人口增长起促进作用;(3)对外开放能显著促进城市的发展,在经济还处于相对封闭状态的内陆地区,其作用尤为显著;(4)基础设施条件能显著影响城市人口增长的节奏。
Based on the basic theories of urbanization, this paper examines the determinants of urban population growth in China in the 1990s. The econometric results show that (1) The urban development in China have a trend of convergence, the larger the size of a city, the lower the population growth rate; (2) The inertia of migration encourages urban population growth; (3) The opening-up policy significantly favors urban development, and such effect is particularly significant in relatively backward inland areas; (4) The infrastructure development has a significant impact on the speed of urban population growth.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第5期9-18,共10页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
