SARS流行与气象因素的相关性分析

Analysis of the correlativity between the SARS epidemic level and atmospheric factors

目的 了解大气环境的变化对SARS流行的影响 ,寻找预防的方法。方法 2 0 0 3年广州、香港、多伦多、新加波、台湾、北京等六个地区的日SARS病例数为因变量 ,以发病前 5天当地的日平均气温、气温日较差、日最高气温、日最低气温、风速、降水、相对湿度、气压等八项指标作为自变量 ,进行相关性分析。结果 日平均气温低、气温日差小、日最高气温低和日最低气温都低等四个因素与SARS病例的增多有较明显的相关。结论 SARS的流行与日持续低温有一定相关 。

Objective Study the influence of the change of atmospheric factors on the epidemic level of SARS in order to get the method of prevention. Methods The daily number of SARS cases in Guangzhou, Hongkong, Toronto, Singapore, Taiwan, Beijing etc in 2003 were the dependent varadbles, The eight atmospheric factors, which were daily mean atmospheric temperature, diurnal temperature, dialy maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, wind spead, precipitation, relative humidity and pressure etc were the independent varadbles, then the analysis of correlativity was made. Results The four factors, such as low daily mean temperature, low temperature range, low maximum temperature and low minimun temperature etc, were correlated with the number of SARS cases obviously. Conclusion The persistent low air temperature was correlated with the epidemic level of SARS cases, but it was not the only factor.