中国利率市场化主导下稳健货币政策规则的构建及应用

Robust Monetary Policy Rules in an Environment of Interest Rate Liberalization in China

基于LWW规则，本文构建了更符合中国国情的、利率市场化主导下的稳健货币政策利率规则。在新规则中，我们考虑了汇率对长期目标通胀率的影响。为此，基于Ball(1999)的模型，我们构造出中国1993—2002年间的动态季度目标通胀率，避免了规则方程中目标通胀率为一恒定值的缺陷。从新规则模型的各项评价指标看，该模型具有较好的统计与计量特性，并有较好的拟合与预测精度。

Based on the LWW Rule, we construct the interest rate rules for interest rate liberalization in China .We have taken into consideration the case in which the exchange rate influences the long-term inflation target. Using the model of Ball (1999), we construct the dynamic quarterly inflation targets for China for the period 1993 to 2002. The model avoids the flaw that the targeted inflation rate is fixed in the rule equation. Our model has good statistical properties and good forecasting precision.