MM5数值预报引入GRAPES三维变分同化技术在上海地区的预报和检验

FORECASTING AND EVALUATION OF MM5 NUMERICAL PREDICTION IN SHANGHAI WITH GRAPES-3DVAR SCHEME

该文简要介绍GRAPES三维变分同化技术在MM5数值预报中的应用 ;利用 2 0 0 3年 3月至 2 0 0 3年 5月华东地区 1 38个台站实况资料与其预报结果 ,评价了该模式系统对华东地区降水的预报结果 ,分析了三维变分同化对MM5数值预报结果的可能影响。结果表明 ,GRAPES三维变分同化方案是比较合理的 ,同化后模式对华东大部分地区的降水 2 4h预报比没有使用同化的总体情况要好 ;同样 ,同化后模式对华东大部分地区的晴雨预报准确率较高。

The applications of GRAPES 3DVAR in MM5 numerical prediction was introduced briefly. Meanwhile, the 3 months' (March, 2003—May, 2003) observed data of the East China and the numerical prediction results of MM5 with GRAPES 3DVAR were used for evaluating the models' prediction ability for precipitation. Then the effects of GRAPES 3DVAR on the results of MM5 numerical prediction were analyzed. The results show that GRAPES 3DVAR scheme is rather reasonable. It was indicated that 24 hour precipitation prediction with assimilation is better than those of without assimilation for most of regions in the East China and the EH value is higher with assimilation for most of regions in the East China as well.