孟加拉湾冬季风及其与亚洲夏季气候的关系

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BAY OF BENGAL WINTER MONSOON AND THE SUMMER CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA

利用东亚和孟湾近海1000hPa低层风场,定义了一个东亚和盂湾的冬季风指数,通过对比分析发现,孟湾冬季风指数温度场和风场具有显著的气候意义。同时可以看到孟湾和东亚冬季风都具有年际和年代际变化,但其变化特征有较大的不同,东亚冬季风有较明显的15-20年的年代际变化,而孟湾冬季风在最近50年则表现为一致增强的趋势。在此基础上,进一步利用相关分析和合成分析方法分析了孟湾冬季风活动的跨季节影响,研究发现,孟湾冬季风对春、夏季气候有较强的跨季节影响,孟湾冬季风指数与次年夏季中国的降水有较好的对应关系。

Based on 1000hPa wind alongside the coastal of East Asia and the Bay of Bengal, we defined the East Asia and the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon index. By contrast and analysis, the results show that the temperature and wind of the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon index has remarkable climate meaning. The Bay of Bengal and East Asia winter monsoon both have the characteristics of interannual variability and annual variability, but their change characteristics are fairly different that the East Asia winter monsoon has more notable characteristics of interannual variability from 15 to 20 years, whereas the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon has showed continuously strengthening trend during the recent 50 years. Based on these, we study the cross-seasonal influence of the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon by using the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results indicate that the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon has stronger cross-seasonal influence on the next spring and summer climate and the index has better relation to the precipitation in the next summer in China.