中国股票市场对货币政策影响的实证分析

The Positivist Research of Stock Market's influence to Monetary Policy

本文运用现代计量经济分析方法,从股票市场对货币需求的影响、股市的财富效应和投资效应,以及股票市场发展对货币政策信贷渠道的影响等几个侧面,实证分析了股票市场的发展对货币政策的影响。其结论是,中国股市的发展已经对狭义货币M1的需求产生了较大影响,而且整体上加剧了狭义货币M1需求的不稳定性;中国股市的发展并未给广义货币M2的需求造成系统性的影响;中国股市的财富效应和投资效应目前都还比较微弱,特别是投资效应;中国股市的发展已经一定程度地分流了信贷渠道对货币政策传导的作用,但迄今为止,信贷渠道仍然是中国货币政策传导的主渠道。

In this paper, we use modern econometric technology to analyze the impact of the development of China's stock markets to the monetary policy from the aspects of influence of the development of stock markets to monetary demand to credit channel of monetary policy, as well as the wealth effect and investment effect of stock markets. Our conclusions is that the development of China's stock markets has made bigger impact to the demand of M1, and pricked up the unstabilization of the demand of M1; but hasn't made systemic influence to the demand of M2; the wealth effect and the investment effect, especially investment effect, of stock markets is weak. We also concluded that the development of our country's stock markets has the role of influence to the credit channel transmitting of the monetary policy, but still, the credit channel is the main channel transmitting for the monetary policy.