2004年国内石油市场半年回顾与展望

Review of China's Domestic Oil Market in First Half of 2004 and Outlook for Rest of Year

2004年上半年我国石油需求的增幅继续扩大,1～5月,石油总表观消费量达13333.6万吨,同比增长21.74%;1～6月原油产量8571万吨,同比增长1.9%,增速比上年下降0.6个百分点;原油加工量为13390.4万吨,大部分油品产量同比增长率在10%以上;柴油收率明显提高而汽油收率稳中略降。国内石油价格创历史新高。二季度四种原油的季度平均基准价除重质油为历史次高点外,其他三种原油基准价均达各自的历史最高水平;上半年,汽油、柴油平均零售中准价比上年同期分别增长7.66%、3.9%。下半年,受经济增长率可能下降、高耗能领域的经济增长会得到有效控制等因素的影响,我国石油需求增长率将低于上半年;原油加工量增速将有所下降;受国际油价的影响,原油基准价和成品油零售中准价将呈现波动向下的趋势。

china's oil demand continued to rise in the first halfof 2004. The oil consumption totaled 133.336 milliontons for the January-May period, a growth of 21.74percent over figures for the same period last year. Crudeproduction reached 85.71 million tons, up 1.9 percentfrom figures for the same period of the previous year,but the growth rate dropped 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, thevolume of oil processed reached 133.904 million tons.The output of most oil products grew more than 10percent compared to figures for the same period lastyear. Diesel output is apparently on the increase, whilegasoline yield is stable, with only a slight decrease. Oilprices set another record high at home. Three of fourquarterly crude oil average base prices reach recordhighs in the second quarter, except for the average baseprice of heavy crude, which reached the second highestlevel in its history. The average retail median prices ofgasoline and diesel grow 7.66 percent and 3.9 percent,respectively, in the first half of this year compared tofigures for the same period of the previous year. China'soil demand growth in the second half of 2004 will belower than in the first half, owing to a possible declinein the economic growth rate and the effective control ofC37economic growth in the high energy-consuming sectors.In the second half, the growth rate of crude processingvolume will decline as well. Meanwhile, the base price ofcrude and the retail median price of oil products will tendtowards downward fluctuation, owing to the influence ofinternational oil prices.