塔里木河下游绿色走廊土地荒漠化驱动因子贡献度研究——基于投影寻踪回归模型

Contribution Degrees of the Desertification Driving Factors of the Green Corridor in the Lower of Tarim River Watershed ——Based on the Model of Projection Pursuit Regression

塔里木河为沙漠河流 ,绿色走廊生存于两大沙漠之间 ,且生长环境恶劣。本文通过对荒漠、沙漠、沙漠化与荒漠化间关系辨析 ,考虑到研究区的地域特征和时间尺度 ,给出绿色走廊土地荒漠化的概念 ;基于土地荒漠化概念 ,给出了土地荒漠化的发展的驱动因子为气候、土壤、水文和植被因子 ,而荒漠化驱动因子变化耦合了人类的直接和间接作用。定性和定量分析了近 5 0年来土地荒漠化发展与其驱动因子的关系 ,利用投影寻踪回归技术研究了驱动因子的贡献率问题 ,取得了较好的效果。

Tarim River Watershed is a desert river. The Green Corridor is located exists between two huge deserts of Taklamak Desert and Kuluk Desert, and the ecological environment of the Corridor is atrocious. The concepts of sand desert, desert, sand desertification and desertification were analyzed. The land desertification concept of Green Corridor was given according to the time scale and characteristics of study area. Based on this concept, the driving factors were divided into climate, soil, hydrology and vegetation, and the change of driving factors was the coupling the nature and direct/indirect role of human. The relationships between development of desertification and its driving factors were studied qualitatively and quantitatively in recent 50's. By using the pursuit projection regression (PPR), the driving forces of driving factors were studied.