有害气体突发性环境污染事故隐患的风险性评价方法探讨

Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Environmental Pollution Accidents Caused by Hazardous Gases.

对有害气体的突发性环境污染事故隐患(以下简称隐患)的风险性,提出从危害度和危险度两个方面进行评价的方法。其中危害度的评价是利用环境预测与评价中的方法,预测在发生事故时,有害气体散逸到人群暴露处的最大浓度。同时结合有害气体对人体产生影响健康、损害机体和危及生命3个程度的浓度,来确定企业的危害度。对于危险度的评价,则分别采甩安全管理的方法和可靠性分析的方法来定量企业的安全管理水平和隐患所用设备的不可靠性。并结合劳动安全评价的有关理论,计算被评价隐患的危险指数。利用数学统计的方法,确定隐患的安全界限标准。通过与该标准比较,判定隐患处于何种状态。并估计其转化成事故的危险程度。

A risk assessment method has been developed for the potentially environmental pollution accidents caused by hazardous gases, in terms of both extent of damage and extent of risk. The extent of damage is assessed by using those methods for environmental prediction and assessment to predict the maximum concentrations of hazardous gases escaped to where population is exposed when an accident occurs. Then the extent of damage by an enterprise is determined by the concentrations of the hazardous gases to cause an effect on human health,a damage to organisms,and a threat to the life. As for assessing the extent of risk,the method for safety management and the method for reliability analysis are used to quantify, respectively, the level of safety management and the irreliability of hazardous equipment used in an enterprese. then the danger index is calculated for the assessed hidden danger based on the relevant principles of the working safety assessment. Finally the mathematical statistics are used to determine the standards for safety limits. By comparing with the standards,it may be judged whether a hidden danger is in the state of safety or in the state of danger, and it may be estimated to which extent such a danger can become an accident , so as to assess the risk of a hidden danger.