摘要
科学地测定水产品价格波动的周期性,有助于了解水产品价格运行机制,并可以作为进一步预测的理论基础。以水产品年度零售价格为研究对象,分别采用变异率指标与谐波分析法从定性和定量角度出发对1978～2000年间其波动的周期性进行了研究。研究结果表明:在此样本期内,我国水产品零售价格波动可以划分为3个完整周期和1个不完整周期,其平均周期长度为7年,属于朱格拉周期;目前,水产品价格处于一个新的周期。可以初步推定,该周期在2003年左右达到峰值。图1,表3,参8。
That measure scientifically the circle of aquatic products price fluctuation is useful to understand the mechanism and become the base on forecasting.In this paper,we had researched on fluctuation circle of aquatic products price between 1978 and 2000 via ratio of variation and harmonic wave.It shows that: in the scale of sample,aquatic products price fluctuation can be divided into 4 circles,3 of them is finished and one is unfinished.Its average circle is 7 year and belongs to Juglar circle.At present the circle of aquatic products price is beginning and up,which will be peak in 2003.
出处
《农业系统科学与综合研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期277-280,共4页
System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70133001)
关键词
水产品
零售价格
价格波动周期
变异率
谐波分析法
aquatic products
retail price
the circle of price fluctuation
ratio of variation
harmonic wave
