我国国际储备需求的实证分析

A positive analysis of demand for international reserves in China

一国国际储备规模合理与否 ,应当以最优国际储备存量和国际收支出现逆差时稳定汇率能力为标准。实证分析表明 ,中国国际储备和汇率稳定之间存在着内在的联系。从长期看 ,中国的国际储备需求主要由国民收入、进口倾向、储备的机会成本、债务风险和国际收支平衡等因素决定 ;从短期看 ,中国的国际储备需求还受到货币政策的影响。中国实行经常项下强制结售汇制 ,与不存在强制结售汇制国家相比 ,同样水平的国际储备稳定汇率的能力要低。取消强制结售汇制 ,让外汇资产积富于民 。

The standard of whether or not the international reserve scale of a state is moderate is that the optimal international reserve stock and the ability of stabilizing exchange rate when balance of payments deficit appears. It was declared by the empirical analysis that there is an intrinsic relation between international reserves in China and exchange rate stability. In a long run, the demand for international reserves in China is mainly decided by such factors as the national income, the average propensity to import, the opportunity cost, the foreign default risk, and the variability in the balance of payments, etc. In the a short time, the demand for international reserves in China is still affected by monetary policy. China puts into practice obligatory foreign exchange-selling system, the ability of international reserve stabilizing exchange rate is lower than in countries without obligatory foreign exchange-selling system. To cancel obligatory foreign exchange-selling system makes people own foreign exchange, thus it can improve the ability of international reserve in China.