几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

Comparison of Prediction Effects of Some Urban Air Pollution Methods

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。

The predictions of three urban air pollution methods, statistical method, numerical model and empirical prediction, are compared against the daily SO 2, NO 2 and PM 10 ground mean concentrations observed in Tianjin urban area. The emphasis is on the objective evaluation of prediction effects of these urban air pollution prediction methods in Tianjin urban area.