摘要
就世界范围而言,目前每桶40美元的高原油价格弊大于利,但国际油价仍然处于安全油价的区间,表现为油价仍在现有经济结构能够承受的范围内,世界经济安然无恙,且在未来一段时间仍会保持较快的增长。不过目前的高油价已经到了安全油价区间的上限附近,一些国家已出现通货膨胀加剧的现象。目前的油价是中国经济仍能承受的,但也到了中国的安全油价区间的上限附近,中国已面临通货膨胀压力,其他一些经济矛盾也逐步显现出来。如果国家不加以调控,把国际油价的涨幅完全传递给消费者,那么通货膨胀的压力会更大。由于国有经济成份在中国经济中占主导地位,而国有经济转移成本的能力较强,并且成本的转移往往具有放大功能,油价的上升使得许多行业盈利增加,短期内对经济增长的影响不会太大。由于高油价使社会消费品零售总额增长不快,国民经济要靠政府对能源需求量大的固定资产的投资来拉动,这可能导致一段时间之后出现能源瓶颈,影响经济的进一步增长。
From a global perspective, the current high price of oilat US$40/b brings more hazards than benefits. However,the price of oil is still within the safe oil price band, as theworld economy remains safe and sound and shouldmaintain its economic momentum. The current price ofoil is at the upper limit and aggravated inflation hasalready occurred in some countries. Though the existingoil prices are still bearable in the Chinese economy, theyare now close to the upper limit of China's safe oil priceband. China is now under inflation pressure and has otherissues. If the Chinese government does not take someaction regarding the increase in international oil pricesthey will transmit to consumers completely, and theinflation pressure would be even higher. Meanwhile,playing a dominant role in the Chinese economy, state-owned economic elements have a greater ability to transfercosts that will features an amplification effect, therefore,the increase in oil prices will contribute to higherprofitability of many industries and will not have seriousconsequences on the economic growth in a short period.With high oil prices, the total volume of retail sales ofconsumables will exhibit slower growth and the nationaleconomy will need to be pulled by investment in fixedassets featuring high demand for energy. This will giverise to an energy bottleneck after a period of time andaffect further economic growth.F10
出处
《国际石油经济》
2004年第9期10-12,共3页
International Petroleum Economics
