基于模糊划分聚类的中长期用电量预测

Mid-Long Term Electric Capacity Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Cluster Theory

将模糊划分聚类理论应用中长期用电量预测,依据模糊聚类、模糊模式识别、类别变量特征值,与概率统计相关分析等模型,建立类别变量特征值与预测对象之间的相关关系,利用此相关关系进行负荷预测。实践表明,此方法具有较高的预测精度,能较好地适应不同地区的负荷特性。

Applying fuzzy cluster theory to mid -long term electric capacity forecasting, based on the models of fuzzy cluster,fuzzy pattern recognition, sort variable eigenvalue and the analyzing of the probability and statistics,formed the correlativity of sort variable eigenvalue and forecasting object,used the correlativity to forecaste the future load values. The practice indicates that the forecasting method has higher forecasting accuracy and can adapt to the load electric capacity characteristic in different areas.