新疆分量式钻孔应变阶变异常的统计特征及其在地震预测中的应用研究

STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF STEPING CHANGE ANOMALITY OF COMPONENT-TYPE BOREHOLE STRAIN AND ITS APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN XINJIANG

新疆分量式钻孔应变异常类型有多种,阶变型异常是其中重要的异常类型之一。系统地研究了新疆地区分量式钻孔应变阶变型异常的统计特征及其和地震的关系。结果表明,阶变型异常以短临异常为主,异常持续时间小于 90 d 的占 97%,异常出现后 3 个月内发生地震的占 55%;应变阶变异常量级范围为 10-6～10-4;应变性质以塑性为主,占 77%;映震效果较好,映震率为 85%。

There are five abnormity types of component-type borehole strain in Xinjiang,among which the more important is the stepping change type. The relation is systematically studied between the statistical character of anormality of steping change and the earthquake in Xinjiang. It is shown that the anomality of steping change is of short-impending priority. The abnormality with duration less than 90 days is more than 97% of the recorded data. After three months of anomality appearance,the possibility for earthqake to occur is 55%. The magnitude of strain steping change is between 10-6 and 10-4,which consists of elastic deformation and plastic one,and plastic deformation is the main deformation taking 77% of the recorded steping change anormality. The mirror effect of steping change anormality on earthquake is quite good with mirror effect rate of 85%.