摘要
本文调查研究了在目前和未来气候条件下的波罗的海海冰。采用了罗斯比区域大气-海洋模型进行了一系列为时30年的时间片试验。对于两个驱动全球模型HadAM3H和ECHAM4/OPYC3中每一个,都根据SRESA2和B2辐射情景进行一次对照操作(1961～1990年)和两次情景操作(2071～2100年)。波罗的海中未来海冰量将平均减少83%。波的尼亚海,芬兰湾和里加湾的大片海域以及芬兰西南群岛的外部将基本上变成无冰区。本文提出的情景是用来研究气候变化对波罗的海环斑海豹(Phoca hispida botnica)的影响。气候变化看来是对所有南方种群的主要威胁。惟一还算不错的冬季海冰生境只限于波的尼亚湾。
Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated.The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments.For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3,one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071- 2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted.The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average.The Bothnian Sea,large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga,and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean.The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica).Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations.The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.
